Is this how Evolution Works?
This is from a conversation I had several months back in regards to DNA sequencing.
While I understand your reasoning, I disagree. I believe that life, like evolution, wasn't just a random chain of events. It is a process. After many mistakes, the right combination appears. For instance, if there is a sequence of numbers, say 1 2 3 4 5, the probablility of getting the correct combination is slim to none. But if we generate a few other random sequences and each time we get one correctly we know to stop moving that one, the probability of achieving the correct sequence gets better. For example:
3-4-5-1-1
2-5-1-4-4
5-3-3-4-2
4-1-3-4-1
1-4-3-4-3
1-3-3-4-1
1-2-3-4-2
1-2-3-4-4
1-2-3-4-5
Of course, it would take a lot longer than that with real life, but you see the idea, don't you?
Answer:
The delima is simple. Does DNA already know what to evolve to?
Here is my question... how do "we know to stop moving that one"? See if you already know that for order to happen it needs to be 1 2 3 4 5 then it is easy to say that "we" know to stop moving that one. But "we" don't control the sequencing of DNA. This example assumes that there is some kind of intelligence necessary in order for things to not be a random chain of events, or it assumes that the DNA itself knows already what to evolve to.
Let's take your example a bit further and see what happens...
Known:
1) DNA is made up of about 3 billion chemical building blocks (divided into 24 different chromosomes)
( http://www.ornl.gov/sci/techresources/Human_Genome/faq/seqfacts.shtml )
2) The age of the universe according to Berkley is 13.5 billion years old
( http://astro.berkeley.edu/~dperley/univage/univage.html Conclusion)
3) The age of the earth is approximated to being 4.55 billion years (plus or minus about 1%)
( http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/faq-age-of-earth.html#howold
Referenced: http://www.indiana.edu/~ensiweb/lessons/deep.les.html )
4) Advanced bacteria is believed to have appeared on earth 3.55 billion years ago.
(http://www.americanscientist.org/template/AssetDetail/assetid/21438?fulltext=true )
Let's start with the age of the Earth. 4.55 billion years old, and advanced bacteria was on the Earth 3,550,000,000 Years ago.
How long would it take to use your template method to come up with the correct order?
Starting with your example, I wrote a little script to calculate the average number of passes it would take to do a combination of 5 numbers. It took on average between 10.67 and 10.81 passes (tries) to come up with 1 2 3 4 5 in order using your method.
Now I'm going to increase the set to 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10.
28.4587, 28.2404, 28.3293
Now I'm going to increase the set to 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.
70.4925, 70.5662, 70.63
From 1..30
117.699, 117.021, 117.362
And again from 1..50
225.743, 220.479, 225.084
(Program can be found here)
It would take 1.4285714286^10 or 14,285,714,286 =~ 14.29 billion attempts using this method to line up all of the numbers in proper order. Review my numbers
Conclusion... If my math is not completely wrong, if the DNA sequence was already perfectly designed and the material simply fell into place, if it took 3.55 Billion years, it would average attempt every 90 days. (i.e. the material would have to line up perfectly)
I suppose if the DNA was already designed such that all the marbles had to do was fall into place, and never change, the within the time, I could see how you'd come to the conclusion to use that method. However strictly speaking, using that method still does not explain DNA without a higher intelligence, simply because the material must "know" to stop mutating when it fits into the right place. If it didn't "know" that then it would be purely random.
While I understand your reasoning, I disagree. I believe that life, like evolution, wasn't just a random chain of events. It is a process. After many mistakes, the right combination appears. For instance, if there is a sequence of numbers, say 1 2 3 4 5, the probablility of getting the correct combination is slim to none. But if we generate a few other random sequences and each time we get one correctly we know to stop moving that one, the probability of achieving the correct sequence gets better. For example:
3-4-5-1-1
2-5-1-4-4
5-3-3-4-2
4-1-3-4-1
1-4-3-4-3
1-3-3-4-1
1-2-3-4-2
1-2-3-4-4
1-2-3-4-5
Of course, it would take a lot longer than that with real life, but you see the idea, don't you?
Answer:
The delima is simple. Does DNA already know what to evolve to?
Here is my question... how do "we know to stop moving that one"? See if you already know that for order to happen it needs to be 1 2 3 4 5 then it is easy to say that "we" know to stop moving that one. But "we" don't control the sequencing of DNA. This example assumes that there is some kind of intelligence necessary in order for things to not be a random chain of events, or it assumes that the DNA itself knows already what to evolve to.
Let's take your example a bit further and see what happens...
Known:
1) DNA is made up of about 3 billion chemical building blocks (divided into 24 different chromosomes)
( http://www.ornl.gov/sci
2) The age of the universe according to Berkley is 13.5 billion years old
( http://astro.berkeley.edu/
3) The age of the earth is approximated to being 4.55 billion years (plus or minus about 1%)
( http://www.talkorigins.org
Referenced: http://www.indiana.edu/
4) Advanced bacteria is believed to have appeared on earth 3.55 billion years ago.
(http://www.americanscientist
Let's start with the age of the Earth. 4.55 billion years old, and advanced bacteria was on the Earth 3,550,000,000 Years ago.
How long would it take to use your template method to come up with the correct order?
Starting with your example, I wrote a little script to calculate the average number of passes it would take to do a combination of 5 numbers. It took on average between 10.67 and 10.81 passes (tries) to come up with 1 2 3 4 5 in order using your method.
Now I'm going to increase the set to 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10.
28.4587, 28.2404, 28.3293
Now I'm going to increase the set to 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.
70.4925, 70.5662, 70.63
From 1..30
117.699, 117.021, 117.362
And again from 1..50
225.743, 220.479, 225.084
(Program can be found here)
It would take 1.4285714286^10 or 14,285,714,286 =~ 14.29 billion attempts using this method to line up all of the numbers in proper order. Review my numbers
Conclusion... If my math is not completely wrong, if the DNA sequence was already perfectly designed and the material simply fell into place, if it took 3.55 Billion years, it would average attempt every 90 days. (i.e. the material would have to line up perfectly)
I suppose if the DNA was already designed such that all the marbles had to do was fall into place, and never change, the within the time, I could see how you'd come to the conclusion to use that method. However strictly speaking, using that method still does not explain DNA without a higher intelligence, simply because the material must "know" to stop mutating when it fits into the right place. If it didn't "know" that then it would be purely random.
posted by D @ Thursday, March 22, 2007
2 Comments:
At October 14, 2007,
Anonymous said…
There is a difference between your analogy and the way evolution works.
Evolution doesn't start with a goal and then works towards it at random.
It's not like starting with 3 5 1 2 4 and then doing everything it can to get to 1 2 3 4 5. Every "permutation" is measured against a function or formula that allows you to determine if it's useful or not. In biological evolution this function is how fit an organism is to survive in its environment, and to reproduce. In evolutionary computing or evolutionary algorithms, this function can be almost anything pertaining to your problem domain.
This answers your second question ,how does evolution know (using know in a very loose sense) when to stop the process of "changing digits"? It doesn't. If the new digit chain is better at surviving and reproducing in the environment (say 13425 is able to reproduce more than 14325), then this chain stays. If it doesn't, it fades away. Simple as that.
The odds of the new chain happening at random mean nothing because there is no reason to expect that chain. We could get any permutation, as there is no goal.
At October 15, 2007,
D said…
"In biological evolution this function is how fit an organism is to survive in its environment, and to reproduce."
That is an interesting theory to potentially explain simple features such as wingspan and color, but how do you apply this logic to complex biological systems in which each part is interdependent upon one another?
For instance, it makes sense that the length of a beak of a bird would grow based on the survival of the fittest theory if long beaks were essential for survival. This would basically be one DNA instruction that controls the length of the beak.
But what about systems who's individual parts are worthless unless specifically incorporated within the entire system. For instance how could a cardiovascular system have evolved and the species survived at all? The heart needs arteries and veins, blood, oxygen, and nutrients to function. The lungs need blood, an outlet for air, nutrients, arteries and veins to function. The cardiovascular system depends on the digestive system to survive, and vice versa. If any of the elements of these systems did not exist in an "evolutionary" process, the entire creature could not exist.
Therefore, in the evolutionary model, all of the systems would have had to come about all at once, since they are interdependent upon one another.
It seems there seems to be a matter of confusion between the types of evolution among many. The first type of evolution is micro-evolution. This is what Darwin observed in the Galapagos Islands. Micro-evolution is basically physical changes within a species that affect preexistent features. These are variable factors within a species. Height, color, width, physical shape, and hair type. Micro-evolution does not add new features to the species, but only modifies the features that exist.
Macro-evolution however is a theory that takes micro-evolution and expands it to say that the physical components of the system come into being through genetic mutations. According to biology, this rearrangement of DNA to create new attributes simply does not happen.
What does happen is dormant genes may appear in a new generation, but that information was already in the DNA. When you observe genetic mutations, they always break down genetic code. They never create new organized code.
Statistically, we're still in the same boat. Complex systems must either have evolved all at once within a single organism, or not at all (as that organism would not have survived).
Back to the digits. You said "If the new digit chain is better at surviving and reproducing in the environment (say 13425 is able to reproduce more than 14325), then this chain stays. If it doesn't, it fades away. Simple as that."
In evolution, when the animals came out of the water to become land dwelling animals, what underwater environmental factors helped in them developing working lungs as opposed to gills? Or legs? It doesn't seem that simple, unless you simply believe evolution by faith, and let the hope of future science fill in the gaps.
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